FMCG

Orbico

Development of machine learning–driven demand prediction models for Orbico’s B2B customer base. The solution enables sales teams to forecast weekly product demand, optimize commercial decisions, and better align offers with actual market needs across multiple countries.

RESULTS


Orbico’s B2B Customer Analytics & Demand Prediction – Data Exploration, ML Model Development & Market Expansion

CHALLENGE

Orbico is one of the largest distributors in Europe, operating across numerous FMCG segments and serving thousands of B2B customers, including retailers, wholesalers, and specialized stores. Its portfolio encompasses a wide range of well-known consumer brands across household care, personal care, beauty, and food segments – such as SC Johnson, Pringles, Lavazza, and many other leading global brands.

With a diverse product portfolio and highly dynamic market conditions, the company required a more advanced approach to ensure stable product availability, support local sales teams, and strengthen commercial planning.

ABOUT THE MARKET

The European FMCG distribution market is characterized by intense competition, rapidly changing consumer demand, and strong pressure on supply-chain optimization. Accurate demand forecasting and customer-level insights are critical for distributors to maintain product availability, reduce operational inefficiencies, and improve the effectiveness of sales negotiations.

In the B2B environment, purchasing behavior is more irregular and less predictable than in B2C, making advanced analytical models essential for anticipating demand and identifying growth opportunities.

Source: Europe – FMCG Logistics Market Analysis 2025–2033: Unlocking Competitive Opportunities
https://www.marketreportanalytics.com/reports/europe-fmcg-logistics-market-14935

The key business challenge was to design a system capable of predicting weekly, product-level demand (unique SKUs) for each B2B customer, based on historical order patterns, seasonality, and behavioral changes.

Orbico required a scalable solution enabling:

  • more accurate commercial planning
  • improved product prioritization
  • proactive sales activities aligned with real demand
  • automated, reliable, and continuously retrained predictions
PROJECT ROADMAP
01

Data Exploration & KPI Definition

Assessment of available transactional data, customer history, product information, and weekly purchasing patterns. Definition of measurable KPIs such as prediction accuracy, customer category stability, and SKU-level forecast performance.

02

Domain Discovery & Infrastructure Setup

Mapping data flows, analyzing seasonal variability, identifying challenges related to new products, and defining model integration points within Orbico’s existing systems.

03

ML Model Design (Proof of Concept)

Development of initial machine learning models for:

  • Customer Categorization – grouping similar B2B buyers based on purchasing behavior
  • Weekly Order Prediction – SKU-level demand forecasting for each customer
  • Scoring Model – supporting sales teams in prioritizing clients with the highest predicted demand or risk of inactivity

This stage also included evaluation of different ML approaches, feature engineering, and baseline accuracy measurement.

04

Full Model Implementation & Automation

End-to-end development of automated prediction pipelines, including:

  • daily ETL workflows
  • weekly forecast generation
  • automatic model retraining
  • data quality validation
  • new SKU detection
  • alerting and notification systems for sales teams

This phase ensured full production readiness and scalability across product categories and markets.

05

Model Monitoring, Calibration & Rollout

Continuous monitoring of model performance, recalibration based on market dynamics, and adjustments for new product categories. Following successful validation, the solution was expanded to Bulgaria and Slovenia.

TESTIMONIAL

“Loyalty Point has a solid knowledge to successfully overcome challenges ahead and has a decent technical infrastructure to fulfill high satisfaction of our Customers. On top of this are values like trust, engagement and kindness that make achieving ambitious goals achievable.”

Paweł Opałko

Digital Director Lagardère Travel Retail

TESTIMONIAL

I highly recommend Loyalty Point as a strategic business partner. Whether analyzing industry dynamics or addressing complex challenges, their team consistently delivers practical and well-founded solutions.

Aneta Pruk

Senior Marketing Manager

Vision Express

TESTIMONIAL

Loyalty Point has a solid knowledge to successfully overcome challenges ahead and has a decent technical infrastructure to fulfill high satisfaction of our Customers. On top of this are values like trust, engagement and kindness that make achieving ambitious goals achievable.

Paweł Opałko

Digital Director

Lagardère Travel Retail

TESTIMONIAL

Working with Loyalty Point combines strategic insight with technological precision. Their team has a deep understanding of market needs, delivering innovative solutions that truly enhance customer engagement. Professionalism, flexibility, and efficiency set them apart as a reliable partner in loyalty program management.

Michał Sierakowski

Loyalty & Customer Data Director

EPP-Poland

TESTIMONIAL

We are very pleased with the results of our cooperation. We especially appreciate the multitasking nature of the team - despite implementing several projects at the same time, complex promotional mechanisms were always ready on time.

Bartosz Żochowski

Head of Loyalty & CRM

Decathlon

TESTIMONIAL

Loyalty Point consistently supports us in navigating various challenges, offering constant, professional and reliable support and tailored solutions that align perfectly with our business needs and capabilities.

Michał Jaworski

E-commerce, Marketing and Omnichannel Director

Rainbow

TESTIMONIAL

Loyalty Point has demonstrated a deep understanding of our needs and knowledge of the fashion market. The recommended loyalty strategy, based on an analysis of our customers' behaviour, addresses both their needs and the challenges facing our business.

Urszula Majewska

Marketing Director

Big Star

TESTIMONIAL

We are pleased with our cooperation. The Loyalty Point team is professional, responsive and dedicated to understanding unique needs. Their insights and solutions have provided a fresh perspective on loyalty management, leading to measurable improvements in customer loyalty metrics.

Alicja Daszkowska

Loyalty and Customer Value Manager

G2A

TESTIMONIAL

Working with Loyalty Point has been a great experience. They delivered a predictive model that truly reflected our business needs, provided flawless API integration with Google Cloud, and ensured excellent ongoing support. Their proactive approach, strong technical skills, and seamless cooperation with our data team make them a highly recommended partner.

Natalia Romankiewicz

Sales Data Manager

Orbico

RESULTS


OUTCOME

The project delivered a robust B2B demand prediction ecosystem that supports Orbico’s sales teams in day-to-day decision-making. Machine learning–based forecasting significantly improved demand visibility, enabled data-driven commercial planning, and strengthened customer management.

The proven effectiveness of the models led Orbico to scale the solution across additional product categories and European markets.

AWARDED ON
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TESTIMONIAL

“Loyalty Point has a solid knowledge to successfully overcome challenges ahead and has a decent technical infrastructure to fulfill high satisfaction of our Customers. On top of this are values like trust, engagement and kindness that make achieving ambitious goals achievable.”

Paweł Opałko

Digital Director Lagardère Travel Retail

TESTIMONIAL

I highly recommend Loyalty Point as a strategic business partner. Whether analyzing industry dynamics or addressing complex challenges, their team consistently delivers practical and well-founded solutions.

Aneta Pruk

Senior Marketing Manager

Vision Express

TESTIMONIAL

Loyalty Point has a solid knowledge to successfully overcome challenges ahead and has a decent technical infrastructure to fulfill high satisfaction of our Customers. On top of this are values like trust, engagement and kindness that make achieving ambitious goals achievable.

Paweł Opałko

Digital Director

Lagardère Travel Retail

TESTIMONIAL

Working with Loyalty Point combines strategic insight with technological precision. Their team has a deep understanding of market needs, delivering innovative solutions that truly enhance customer engagement. Professionalism, flexibility, and efficiency set them apart as a reliable partner in loyalty program management.

Michał Sierakowski

Loyalty & Customer Data Director

EPP-Poland

TESTIMONIAL

We are very pleased with the results of our cooperation. We especially appreciate the multitasking nature of the team - despite implementing several projects at the same time, complex promotional mechanisms were always ready on time.

Bartosz Żochowski

Head of Loyalty & CRM

Decathlon

TESTIMONIAL

Loyalty Point consistently supports us in navigating various challenges, offering constant, professional and reliable support and tailored solutions that align perfectly with our business needs and capabilities.

Michał Jaworski

E-commerce, Marketing and Omnichannel Director

Rainbow

TESTIMONIAL

Loyalty Point has demonstrated a deep understanding of our needs and knowledge of the fashion market. The recommended loyalty strategy, based on an analysis of our customers' behaviour, addresses both their needs and the challenges facing our business.

Urszula Majewska

Marketing Director

Big Star

TESTIMONIAL

We are pleased with our cooperation. The Loyalty Point team is professional, responsive and dedicated to understanding unique needs. Their insights and solutions have provided a fresh perspective on loyalty management, leading to measurable improvements in customer loyalty metrics.

Alicja Daszkowska

Loyalty and Customer Value Manager

G2A

TESTIMONIAL

Working with Loyalty Point has been a great experience. They delivered a predictive model that truly reflected our business needs, provided flawless API integration with Google Cloud, and ensured excellent ongoing support. Their proactive approach, strong technical skills, and seamless cooperation with our data team make them a highly recommended partner.

Natalia Romankiewicz

Sales Data Manager

Orbico

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